The letter of December 2010 is a summary of 2010 and lessons learned. If today I speak to you through this blog is that I do not share his vision at all and I find, however, very pro-Boeing.
In short, according to Richard Aboulafia, Boeing launched the Boeing 787 Dreamliner with a view of the extraordinarily relevant market while Airbus launched the A380 without any economic vision and has followed his ego to have an aircraft capable of competing with the Boeing 747 .
If this were the case, Emirates is one of the most profitable company, would not have ordered up to 90 aircraft. The numbers are in and the controls are in appointments and most importantly, it responds well to a vision of the market. The point at issue is actually what customers expect that we are but there is another aspect to consider: the profitability of the point to point and traffic congestion air. And on both side, nothing is said by the great analyst.
I'm not an analyst of world aviation, but it just has to see the U.S. as some lines from point to point have ruined U.S. airlines need to load factor.
It's a simple equation and the fact that many airlines have hubs addresses this problem. And Richard Aboulafia
concluded that Boeing, despite his brilliant vision, failed to deliver on its promise by disastrous choice (supply chain external uncontrolled, composites and any uncontrolled électrique) et qu'Airbus a échoué à délivrer sur une vision désastreuse.
Là encore, 2011 nous donnera l'occasion de revenir sur le cas des analystes qui ont une vision trop américaine et pas suffisamment globale, en y incluant l'Europe et l'Asie.
In fact, I read very carefully the reports of all aerospace analysts and, in general, I mostly share their views. Richard Aboulafia is one of those renowned and respected aerospace analyst, Vice-President Analysis at Teal Group.
Richard Aboulafia December 2010 Letter is mostly a summary of 2010. However, I have decided to share my point of view, as I completely disagree with Richard Aboulafia that I consider mostly a pro-american and pro-Boeing view.
If I summarize this letter, Boeing has launched the Boeing 787 Dreamliner with a brilliant vision of the market whereas Airbus launched the Airbus A380 without any economics and market trends and only followed their own ego and nationalism to build such an aircraft to compete with the Boeing 747.
If that was the case, Emirates, one of the most profitable airlines wouldn't have committed up to 90 aircraft. My analysis is to look at figures and Airbus A380 has 240 orders in its book. Therefore, if it doesn't meet an expectation from the market, so why do we have that amount of order for A380. Airbus has not yet break even and need further commitment for its aircraft to be profitable. However, Richard Aboulafia is right when he said that market expectation is on point to point routes. But 2 points need to be analyzed: the profitability of point to point routes and trafic congestion. And these are the main points where Airbus A380 has its role to play.
I'm not an aerospace analyst but we have seen many US airlines operating point to point routes and where occupancy rate were not sufficient and they went bankrupt.
It's a simple equation and many airlines, including US airlines, have all their Hubs.
And Richard Aboulafia to conclude that Boeing disastrously executed on a brilliant vision (due to a poorly controlled global supply chain, an all electric configuration and composites) while Airbus poorly executed on a disastrous vision.
Once Again, I'm waiting for 2011 to see if The aerospace analysts forecasts come true As They Have an All American vision and not a comprehensive vision Encompassing Europe and Asia.
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